Research Proposal
Area and context of research
The intended area of research is UK road transport policy as it relates to climate change.Transport policy has a significant role to play in ensuring the UK achieves its targets fortackling climate change. The agreed international target, set by the Kyoto Protocol,requires a reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) of 12.5% below 1990levels by 2008-2012. Further, the UK Climate Change Act (2008) set targets to reduceGHG emissions by 80% by 2050 and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, one of the mainGHGs, by 26% by 2020, again compared to 1990 levels. Budget 2009 introduced the 英國留學生dissertationfirstcarbon budget and the legally binding target for the reduction in CO2 emissions has beenincreased from 26% to 34% by 2020 (HM Treasury, 2009). Road transport is the secondlargest source of CO2 emissions in the UK, accounting for 22.4% of the total in 2007.Research into this sector is particularly important because CO2 emissions from roadtransport are increasing, despite falling total CO2 emissions (Department for Transport,2009).Previous studies have considered the effects of road transport policy on congestion and
air pollution. Discussion of climate change itself has often been secondary to theseconsiderations. Recently the focus appears to have increasingly been on reducingcongestion alone. The research being proposed will add to our existing knowledge, as itwill focus primarily on the specific climate change effects of transport policy. Theanalysis will contribute to our understanding of the effectiveness of current policymeasures to reduce CO2 emissions from road transport, providing recommendations forfuture policy decisions in this area.
Key Literature
Potter and Parkhurst’s (2005) article on transport policy and transport tax reform providesa comprehensive overview of key issues pertaining to the research topic. They consider arange of policies that have been both proposed and used to deal with the goals of raisingrevenue, discouraging growth in car use and promoting the purchase of more fuelefficient, and thus cleaner, cars. Consideration of two main sets of factors is offered. Thefirst of these is factors which have led to increased car use. These factors includedecreasing costs associated with car use and increasing costs of public transport. Thisunderlines the importance of establishing effective means of reducing car use andtherefore CO2 emissions. The second area is political issues relating to transport policy.
For example, the fuel protests of 2000 exemplify the direct relationship between politicalactivism and government policy. They consider the impact that political pressures havehad on transport policy and its change in focus towards reducing congestion, withdetailed discussion of a national road pricing scheme aimed at dealing with this issue.
Their conclusion is relevant to the research topic as they identify the risk that movingaway from vehicle based taxes toward road pricing poses to achieving a reduction inemissions.#p#分頁標題#e#
A further article that can be drawn upon for research into this area is Owens’ (1995)article on pricing and planning in transport policy. Owens considers the economic theoryunderlying transport policy and how the external costs that are ignored by individualrational consumers result in an outcome that is not optimal for society. Continuing onfrom this the article looks at how the focus of transport policy has shifted away fromgenerating revenue toward the aim of internalising the external costs of transport,ensuring that road users pay the full social and environmental costs of transport use. The
article shows that road transport is underpriced and quotes a figure of 27% as theproportion of cost that is borne by car users when factors such as congestion and
environmental damage are priced into the analysis. Furthermore, it is argued that theperceptions of internal costs are inaccurate, which could be relevant in explaining whysome policies do not result in the outcome expected. This article is relevant to theresearch topic as it covers the theoretical foundations that any research into this area must
rest upon. Moreover, discussion of the difficulty of quantifying external costs, especiallyrelating to the environment, and the risks that rises in transport costs pose to the wider
economy, provides an important perspective from which the topic should be addressed.The econometric analysis carried out by Ryan et al., (2009) provides a comprehensivereview of the fiscal and other measures used by European Union (EU) countries inrelation to CO2 emissions from passenger cars. They analysed the impact of thesemeasures on car sales and CO2 emissions intensity using evidence for the period 1995 –2004. This article is important to the research topic because when looking at the policymeasures used by the UK to reduce CO2 emissions the influence of EU policy andinitiatives need to be considered. The EU policies comprise the following three areas,firstly, voluntary agreements with vehicle manufactures to reduce CO2 emissions throughimproved technologies, secondly, improving consumer information on fuel efficiency andthirdly, fiscal policies such as vehicle related taxes to influence consumer choice in thedirection of fuel-efficient cars. This last policy is particularly important, as there is aproposal for a directive on the alignment of member state vehicle taxes. Furthermore, themethodology used by Ryan et al., is relevant to the development of an econometric modelto analyse the research question. Their work attempts to determine which variables arethe most important in influencing the intensity of CO2 emissions from new cars. As wellas considering technical characteristics of cars they also consider demand side variables,such as vehicle prices and taxes, and socio-economic factors that affect consumers’choice of cars. Their results show that taxes on vehicles and fuel are significant inreducing CO2 emissions and that the voluntary agreement with manufacturers is notsignificant, although they recommend further research into the latter. They conclude thatmore action needs to be taken if targets are to be met, thus supporting the relevance ofresearch into this area and its relevance to current debates.#p#分頁標題#e#
The Department for Transport’s (2008) paper on the results of the National TransportModel is a highly relevant source of information for the research topic. This paper reportsthe results of the National Transport Model, which is an econometric forecasting modelincorporating all modes of passenger transport, and provides the most recent forecasts forthe UK regarding traffic growth, congestion and emissions. Chapter 2 of the report isparticularly relevant as it provides road transport forecasts to the year 2025. The policiesincluded in the model are vehicle excise duty, company car tax, fuel duty, the RenewableTransport Fuels Obligation and voluntary agreements on new car fuel-efficiency. Theforecasts indicate that reductions in CO2 emissions due to these policies will only beenough to offset growth in traffic and not to reduce the total amount, therefore suggestingthat current policies are not sufficient to meet emissions targets. Furthermore, it providesdetailed analysis of the relationship between GDP, oil prices and CO2 emissions, which isvery relevant to the topic at the moment due to the uncertainty surrounding the globaleconomic downturn. The report provides information that will support decision makingon explanatory variables as well as detailed definitions and links to high quality andimpartial data sources.
Research question or main hypotheses
The broad research question being posed is ‘What is the most effective policy forreducing CO2 emissions from road transport in the UK?’Policy encompasses both fiscal policy and other measures aimed at changing behavioursuch as voluntary agreements with vehicle manufactures to produce more fuel efficientcars and advertising campaigns targeting road users. Fiscal policy can be disaggregatedinto vehicle excise duty, company car tax and fuel duty. Vehicle excise duty is ofparticular interest following the introduction in 2001 of variable rates for different carsbased on emissions.
Road transport covers different vehicle types for both commercial and personal use.Passenger cars make up the largest contribution to CO2 emissions and available databreaks this down into personal and business use. Personal car use is known to be the moresignificant contributor to CO2 emissions (Department for Transport, 2009).The more specific question that the research will attempt to address is ‘What is the impactof fiscal policy and other factors on CO2 emissions from the personal use of cars in theUK?’
Method and data to be used
A quantitative approach seems to be the most appropriate method in analysing the impact
of fiscal policies and other factors on CO2 emissions. This could be effectively analysed
using time series data in a multiple regression.
The required information will be annual data and will cover the period 1990 to 2008.
1990 has been chosen as the start point as this is the accepted base year for the targets
against which emission reduction is tested. The dependent variable will be CO2 emissions#p#分頁標題#e#
from cars (measured in millions of tonnes). The following independent variables could be
included in the analysis: vehicle excise duty; fuel duty; fuel prices; GDP (included
because car usage falls during periods of recession); other motoring costs e.g. insurance,
and factors affecting the use of public transport. The main sources of data will be
Department for Transport records and the environmental accounts of the National
Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, both of which are available online.
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Proposed chapter structure
1. Introduction
This chapter will start with an explanation of the importance of the research topic with
reference to the targets for reducing CO2 emissions. An historical overview of the growth
in demand for car usage and associated growth in emissions will be given. The objective
of the research will be stated.
2. Previous studies
A review of previous studies into transport policy in the UK will be conducted. This will
focus on their relationship to the research being undertaken.
3. Transport policy
Economic theories of externalities and price elasticity of demand relating to car use will
be drawn upon to explain the purpose and role of transport policy. Past, current and
proposed transport policy will be discussed with specific attention being paid to fiscal
policy.
4. Methodology
An econometric model of the relationship between transport policy and CO2 emissions
will be developed. Explanatory variables to be included will be defined.
5. Results
The findings of the multiple regression analysis will be presented. Results will be
http://www.ttc-switch.com/Thesis_Tips/presented in tabular form and supported by written explanation. Discussion of potential
improvements to the model will also be made.
6. Conclusions
A summary of the key findings will be presented, forming the basis for policy
recommendations and recommendations for future research.
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References
Department for Transport (2008). Road Transport Forecasts 2008:
Results from the Department for Transport’s National Transport Model [online]. London:
Department for Transport. Available at:
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/economics/ntm/roadtransportforcasts08/rtf08.pdf [Accessed 15
April 2009].
Department for Transport (2009). Overview of UK Transport and Climate Change
[online]. London: Department for Transport. Available at:
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/energyenvironment/climatech
angefactsheets.pdf [Accessed 15 April 2009].
HM Treasury (2009). Budget 2009: Building Britain’s Future [online]. London: The
Stationery Office. Available at: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/bud_bud09_index.htm
[Accessed 23 April 2009].
Owens, S. (1995). From ‘predict and provide’ to ‘predict and prevent’?: pricing and#p#分頁標題#e#
planning in transport policy. Transport Policy [online] 2 (1), pp. 43-49. Available at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VGG-3YBB0G0-
N&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_
version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=71f7738708fad9b433710317c7b1c3aa
[Accessed 15 April 2009].
Potter, S. and Parkhurst, G. (2005). Transport Policy and Transport Tax Reform. Public
Money & Management [online] 25 (3), pp. 171-178. Available at:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=743505 [Accessed 15 April 2009].
Ryan, L., Ferreira, S. and Convery, F. (2009). The impact of fiscal and other measures on
new passenger car sales and CO2 emissions intensity: Evidence from Europe. Energy
Economics [online] 31 (3), pp. 365-374. Available at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7G-
http://www.ttc-switch.com/Thesis_Tips/4V59TXD1&_user=10&_coverDate=05%2F31%2F2009&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=searc
h&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md
5=1a16e8fa01db79158ae11e1db71cd349 [Accessed 15 April 2009].