University of Bradford
ID-2104M
Research Skills for Economists
Your Research Proposal should discuss the following areas and be structured using theheading indicated:
· Area and context of research – identification of the chosen area of research anddiscussion of why is it important.
· Key literature – an overview and discussion of 3-4 important sources relating to yourresearch area (e.g. refereed journal articles, research-based books or chapters fromresearch–based books, 英國dissertation網government/NGO reports, etc.) which illustrate thedebate/issue of your topic. Do NOT use textbooks, magazines or internet sites. Makesure you show how their approach, findings or conclusions relate to your topic area;do not simply describe them.
· Research question or main hypotheses – what is the specific question you seek toanswer?
· Method and data to be used – what methods are appropriate to answering yourquestion/ hypotheses? What data will you use? Where is it from? How will youanalyze it?
· Proposed chapter structure – a logical listing of the chapter headings and briefdescription of likely contents to illustrate the organization of your dissertation.
Area and Context of Research
The proposed area of research for the program’s dissertation is international migration. Aspecific focus will be put on the case of Romania, an Eastern European country whichexperienced a unique migration trend after gaining democracy. The start of significantmigration issues in Romania is marked by the end of the communist period and intensifiedwith the entry into the Schengen space and later on in the European Union. The purpose ofthis research is to observe future trends in the international migration of the Romanianpopulation. In order to make a judgment on this topic a closer look at the social,macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators is necessary.
The research in this area is relevant because of the importance it has on Romania’s future. Ifthe factors that influence international migration could be identified, the government couldapply specific, policies stopping the phenomenon from happening, which will contribute to abrighter future.
Key Literature
There is a vast literature on the topic of international migration which presents differentapproaches to the issue. For the purpose of this assignment the following research papershave been selected to http://www.ttc-switch.com/dissertation_writing/Ecommerce/point out some aspects of international migration.
· A Country Report on Romania Migration Abroad: Stocks and Flows After 1989
This report will provide all the migration history for the Romanian case. It presents theconcept of international migration as a social innovation which appeared after 1989. In
Romania’s case this date is of high significance because it marks the end of the communistperiod and the start of democracy. Considering the politics existent while the communists#p#分頁標題#e#
were in power, international migration was almost impossible and only few people who werein power were allowed to experience contact with other societies.It also presents the period after The World Wars up to 2003 in such a manner that it pointsout all the significant periods of time for migration like:
Ø the internal migration from rural to urban areas which took place all the way throughthe communist period.
Ø 1990 to 1992 is a period of heavy international migration out of Romania mainly of
Germans who never had the chance to leave the communism. The recorded numbers
are between 30 000 to 100 000 emigrants a year, mainly Germans.
Ø 1993 to 1997 -the outflow of Germans continues but at a much lower level of 18 000emigrants a year. It is also argued in the research paper that 1997 represents the end oftemporary migration and the start of a period when people permanently emigrate.
Ø 1998 to 2003 -the flow of emigrants was less than 18 000 mainly to U.S.A and otherEuropean countries. During this period the entrance of Romania into the Schengenspace opened new opportunities for Romanians.
Furthermore the paper also describes a series of factors that are recognized to favourisepopulation outflows from a country. It specifies a series of social and economic factors like:people’s sex, age, education level and the national rate of unemployment.
· Scale, Diversity and Determinants of Labour Migration in Europe
This article will play a significant role in the Romanian case research making a contributionto the methodology used and to answering the hypotheses questions. From the
methodological point of view the authors estimated the factors that influence internationalmigration through an OLS equation. The regression equation used in the model covers
factors like sex, age, marital status, place of origin, skill level, education and likeliness tomigrate. After estimating the equation the authors present the factors that turned out to bestatistically significant at the 5 per cent significance level, like: age, marital status, education,people from rural area and emigrants influenced by other that are already abroad.
In addition it also makes reference to specific migratory trends. It argues that countries thatfind themselves in transition are more likely to have migration issues but it also specifies thefactors that do not favourise the outflow of people from a country. There are factors like age,education and marital status which are presented to be indirectly proportional with thenumber of emigrants.
Furthermore a significant prediction is made by Boeri and Brücker (2001) who argue that by2030, 3.5 per cent of the population from Central and Eastern Europe will migrate to the
west. Under the assumption of free-mobility this prediction might be plausible but if there isexcellent understanding of the factors that determine migration this phenomenon could bestopped to the benefit of their countries of origin.#p#分頁標題#e#
· Macro-economic Determinants of International Migration in Europe
This is an important research paper with a potential significant impact on the dissertation’sconclusions.
Firstly it presents the determinants of international migration, some of which will be coveredby the Romanian case dissertation as well, like: social and economic factors. There are alsospecified indicators like unemployment rate as the spare human capacity and GDP or GDPper capita as being productivity indicators.
Furthermore is argued in this research paper that formulas for estimating international
migration exist and are reliable. A first equation used will be I=
 
where ‘w0’
represents the wage in the country of origin, ‘wi’ the wage earned abroad and ‘c’ the
migration costs. If the equation turns out to be positive then migration is likely to occur and if
negative outflows of population will stop.
In addition to the first equation there is a second one proposed by Massey et all (1993) which
is more accurate mainly because it includes factors like probability of deportation and of
actually finding a job.
ER0=
1 2  30     0 
 where
ER0 represents the expected net return from migrating
P1(t) represents the probability of avoiding deportation
P2(t) represents the probability of employment at destination
P3(t) represents the probability of employment in the country of origin
Yd(t) represent the earnings abroad
Y0(t) represent the earnings in the country of origin
R represents the discount factor
C0 represents the migration costs which include psychological costs
Both of the equations above will play a significant role in the Romanian case, leading to an
educated conclusion about the future international migration numbers.
Modeling International Migration: Determinants of Emigration from Greece to the
United States 1820- 1980
This research paper offers further information about how the intensity of migration is
estimated and what social factors influence the population outflow. Conditions from the
country of origin and destination together with laws are being taken into consideration as pull
factors that have a big impact on international migration. There also are push factors like the
information provided back home by the already settled emigrants and current economic
situation which could significantly increase the number of emigrants.
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Furthermore the study provides an equation of calculating the expected number of emigrants
from a country, formula which can be used to point out the importance of factors like crossborder
information.


=ci(I-i)+ib+ri where

英國dissertation網represents the number of emigrants in year t#p#分頁標題#e#
Ci represents the mediating factor (emigration policies)
(I-i) represents the exchange of information from abroad
Ib represents the people that emigrated from different reasons other than those in the study
Ri represents the random fluctuations in the number of emigrants
Research Question or Main Hypotheses
The research question of this proposal is:
· Can the correctly estimation of the economic factors that determine Romanian
migration stop future outflows of people?
The general hypotheses that will be tested in this research paper can be divided in different
questions:
· What economic factors affect Romanian migration and in what proportion?
· What are the historical trends in Romanian’s migration?
· What policies does the government need to apply to stop population outflows?
· Accordingly to the equations of estimating future migration trends, are there any other
factors outside government’s reach?
Method and Data to Be Used
The most appropriate approach in the Romanian migration research is the quantitative one
which will provide a reliable and objective answer for the hypotheses.
In order to observe which factors determine the Romanian international migration an OLS
equation will be estimated. The equation will have as the dependant variable the total annual
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number of Romanian international migrations and as the independent variables the following
factors: GDP per capita, inflation, education, earnings, health sector and unemployment.
The data for all these variables is available from the Romanian National Institute of Statistics.
The data provided spreads from 1990 in the case of all the variables except unemployment
which is provided from 1991, to 2006 when the data stops to be provided. The inexistence of
data before 1990 is explained by the communist period which did not allow people to come in
contact with other countries and for this reason if they were any emigrations they would not
be published at all.
There will also be used the migration estimation formulas along with the existent data to test
whether they work or not and if they could be used for a migration forecast.
Proposed Chapter Structure
Proposed chapter structure for the Romanian international migration research paper will be:
Table of Contents
· The complete list of figures
· The complete list of tables
1. Chapter 1 Introduction
· Background
· Hypotheses
· The research relevance
· Factors that affect international migration
· Data used on Romanian migration
2. Chapter 2 Historical Overview
· Date used, approach and goal
· Romania post 1989
· Romania after 1990
· Conclusion on the observable patterns in the Romanian international migration#p#分頁標題#e#
trend
3. Chapter 3 International Migration Overview
· Introduction
· Social impact of international migration in Romania
· Economic impact of international migration in Romania
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· Conclusion
4. Chapter 4 Analyses of international migration in Romania
· Hypotheses
· Data
· Methodology
· Analysis of the OLS estimation
· Conclusion
5. Chapter 5 Analyses of possible predictions of international migrations: the
Romanian case
· Background
· Hypotheses
· Possible future government policies
· Factors outside the model
· Conclusion
6. Chapter 6 Conclusions
· Conclusion of the determinants of international migration in Romania
· Conclusion of the potential government policies
· The migration forecast for Romania
· Final remarks
References
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References:
· Boeri, T. and Brücker, H. (2001) The Impact of Eastern Enlargement on Employment
and Labour Markets in the EU Member States, Report for the European Commission.
Brussels: DG Employment and Social Affairs.
· Constantinou, S. T. and Diamantides, N. D. (1985) Modeling International Migration:
Determinants of Emigration from Greece to the United States 1820 – 1980. Annals of
the Association of American Geographers. Vol. 75, no. 3, September, pp. 352-369.
· Jennissen, R. (2004) Macro-economic Determinants of International Migration in
Europe. Amsterdam: Dutch University Press
· Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A. and Taylor, J. E.
(1993) Worlds in Motion, Theories of International Migration: A review and
http://www.ttc-switch.com/dissertation_writing/Ecommerce/appraisal. In: Population and Development Review, 19(3), pp. 431-466
· Sandu, D., Radu, C., Constatinescu, M. and Ciobanu, O. (2004) A country report on
Romanian Migration abroad: Stocks and Flows after 1989. Multicultural center
Praque. November
· Zaiceva, A. and Zimmermann, K. F. (2008) Scale, Diversity and Determinants of
Labour migration in Europe. Oxford Review of Economic policy. Vol. 24, no. 3, pp.
427-451